Friday, June 08, 2007

Newsletter dated 8th June,2007

U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday as Treasury yields surged above 5 percent, reinforcing fears that global inflation would force borrowing costs to rise. Major indexes posted their biggest three-day drop since February's global equity rout, and their biggest one-day loss in three months. It's the reality of higher interest rates and the specter of what that means, potentially, for M&A activity and also corporate profits. M&A activity has been driving the rally for the past weeks and if the cost of borrowing goes up, it may not make as many deals economic.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slid 198.94 points, or 1.48 percent, to end at 13,266.73, with all 30 Dow components finishing in the red. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 26.66 points, or 1.76 percent, to finish at 1,490.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 45.80 points, or 1.77 percent, to close at 2,541.38. The three benchmark indexes suffered their biggest one-day percentage losses since March 13. Adding to inflation concerns was a jump in oil prices. U.S. crude settled up 97 cents at $66.93 a barrel.

European shares extended their slide to a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, hit by a rise in bond yields and deepening concerns over the outlook for interest rates in both Europe and the United States. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> closed 1.1 percent lower at 1,569.05 points. The benchmark index has lost 3.5 percent over the past four sessions, marking its longest losing streak since a global equities sell-off in late February and early March that was sparked by a sudden sharp drop in Chinese stocks. The trigger is clearly the rise in bond yields and the prospect of further rate hikes in Europe and fading hopes of rate cuts in the U.S.

As history has shown, the equity markets are extremely sensitive to a sustained rise in bond yields, so if they continue to rise it will be pretty tough for equities as you get increasing competition.Increased rate expectations globally have finally started to impact on equity markets, and concerns are starting to build about the impact that rising bond yields will ultimately have on global growth. The Bank of England held UK interest rates at a six-year high of 5.5 percent on Thursday, as expected, one day after the European Central Bank hiked its benchmark rate. Most economists expect the BoE to raise rates again before long. Higher rates translate into higher borrowing costs, hitting corporate profits and curbing M&A activity, one of the main drivers behind European shares' recent bull run. Among Europe's benchmark indexes, London's FTSE 100 dropped 0.27 percent, while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> lost 1.46 percent, and Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> slipped 1.44 percent.

The Nikkei average fell 1.64 percent on Friday with a broad range of shares down after U.S. and European stocks fell on a rise in bond yields and concerns over the outlook for interest rates in both regions. The Nikkei <.N225> finished the morning down 296.59 points at 17,756.79, and the broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> lost 1.58 percent to 1,751.61. The blue-chip Hang Seng Index <.HSI> had fallen 1.6 percent, after Wall Street slid sharply for a second straight day amid worries that inflation could push up interest rates. All the other Asian markets are down anywhere between 1.5%-2%.

Our markets would not be any exception, atleast in the morning trades. Sensex is likely to open 250-300 points lower following the global markets. Nifty is also likely to open 60-80 points lower. We might witness value buying at lower levels. So dont panic in this fall. Today we will make money by going long. Just see. We should have guts to buy at lower levels.

TOP BUYS.....

1. NIFTY FUTURES around 4080-4090 levels.

2. ONGC (cash) around 825-828 levels

3. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (cash) around 1615-1618 levels

4. L&T (cash) around 1835-38 levels

5. BIOCON around 420-422


TOP SELLS.....

1. GVK POWER (very risky)

2. FINANCIAL TECH (risky)

3. IPCA LABS

4. BALAJI TELE

5. MPHASIS BFL

6. SADBHAV ENGINEERING

7. CROMPTON GRAVES


Note:-
1. Place appropriate Stop loss below your cost price.
2. Do your own homework before trading.
3. Book profits if you get 3-4% return.

ANURAG DUJARI
Mobile - 09831909904, 09433988791, 09330911514, 09883059291
Messenger ID - anurag130
E-Mail - anurag130@yahoo.com

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